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A股究竟还要跌多久?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月24日 10:22:08
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(再)(者)(,自)(1月)(份)(以)(来)(,A股)(几)(乎)(是)(天)(天)(上)(涨)(,市)(场)(做)(多)(氛)(围)(极)(其)(浓)(郁)(,甚)(至)(连)(正)(常)(的)(回)(调)(都)(没)(有)(,如)(此)(逼)(空)(行)(情)(,不)(但)(积)(聚)(了)(大)(量)(的)(做)(空)(动)(能)(,还)(囤)(积)(无)(数)(的)(获)(利)(筹)(码)(,一)(旦)(这)(个)(市)(场)(稍)(有)(风)(吹)(草)(动)(,马)(上)(就)(会)(有)(无)(数)(获)(利)(盘)(涌)(出)(来)(,相)(对)(应)(的)(大)(调)(整)(就)(在)(所)(难)(免)(。
最)(后)(,金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(仍)(在)(继)(续)(。特)(别)(是)(资)(管)(新)(规)(出)(台)(后)(,包)(含)(较)(多)(的)(股)(票)(质)(押)(、股)(东)(中)(信)(托)(占)(比)(较)(高)(的)(公)(司)(已)(经)(开)(启)(了)(一)(轮)(出)(清)(过)(程)(,这)(些)(公)(司)(以)(中)(小)(盘)(公)(司)(为)(主)(。同)(时)(,主)(板)(以)(及)(沪)(深)(300的)(公)(司)(中)(,包)(括)(家)(电)(、白)(酒)(等)(诸)(多)(白)(马)(公)(司)(,也)(介)(入)(了)(较)(多)(之)(前)(的)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(。而)(在)(理)(财)(新)(规)(下)(,这)(些)(资)(金)(在)(新)(一)(年)(里)(不)(再)(续)(期)(,因)(此)(便)(出)(现)(了)(集)(中)(抛)(售)(和)(白)(马)(股)(下)(跌)(的)(状)(况)(。
与)(此)(同)(时)(,A股)(的)(股)(票)(质)(押)(风)(险)(尚)(未)(完)(全)(释)(放)(,未)(来)(仍)(有)(被)(进)(一)(步)(加)(强)(监)(管)(的)(可)(能)(。A股)(整)(体)(的)(杠)(杆)(风)(险)(仍)(存)(在)(,质)(押)(比)(例)(仍)(然)(较)(高)(。截)(至)(2月)(5日)(,3800多)(家)(上)(市)(公)(司)(中)(,有)(3469家)(股)(东)(进)(行)(了)(股)(票)(质)(押)(,其)(中)(132家)(股)(份)(质)(押)(比)(例)(在)(50%以)(上)(,568家)(质)(押)(比)(例)(在)(30%-50%之)(间)(。而)(这)(股)(票)(都)(要)(去)(杠)(杆)(化)(。
短)(期)(来)(看)(,本)(轮)(杀)(跌)(来)(势)(异)(常)(凶)(猛)(,有)(点)(像)(兵)(败)(如)(山)(倒)(的)(走)(势)(,目)(前)(大)(趋)(势)(已)(经)(被)(破)(坏)(,而)(小)(趋)(势)(又)(在)(下)(跌)(途)(中)(。鉴)(于)(未)(来)(市)(场)(还)(有)(较)(大)(的)(下)(跌)(空)(间)(,建)(议)(中)(小)(投)(资)(者)(应)(继)(续)(回)(避)(前)(期)(没)(有)(大)(跌)(的)(白)(马)(股)(、蓝)(筹)(股)(、上)(证)(50等)(股)(票)(。未)(来)(应)(该)(寻)(找)(那)(些)(有)(一)(定)(业)(绩)(支)(撑)(、且)(涨)(幅)(不)(大)(的)(个)(股)(。
从)(目)(前)(情)(况)(看)(,A股)(的)(投)(资)(方)(向)(已)(经)(转)(变)(,将)(更)(注)(重)(于)(价)(值)(投)(资)(理)(念)(。所)(以)(投)(资)(者)(后)(市)(不)(仅)(要)(避)(免)(个)(股)(踩)(雷)(风)(险)(,还)(要)(回)(归)(价)(值)(投)(资)(的)(理)(念)(,这)(样)(才)(能)(真)(正)(在)(A股)(市)(场)(中)(赢)(利)(。这)(主)(要)(是)(出)(于)(二)(方)(面)(的)(因)(素)(:
一)(方)(面)(,国)(家)(队)(不)(断)(进)(入)(,以)(及)(加)(快)(新)(股)(发)(行)(速)(度)(已)(是)(常)(态)(化)(,A股)(现)(在)(已)(经)(改)(变)(了)(过)(往)(所)(特)(有)(的)(,有)(利)(于)(“炒)(小)(”、“炒)(新)(”、“炒)(概)(念)(”等)(行)(为)(的)(土)(壤)(环)(境)(。而)(对)(于)(投)(资)(者)(来)(说)(,未)(来)(炒)(股)(票)(既)(要)(更)(加)(理)(性)(,又)(要)(对)(上)(市)(公)(司)(做)(足)(功)(课)(。未)(来)(在)(A股)(市)(场)(上)(要)(想)(受)(到)(追)(棒)(,就)(必)(须)(拿)(出)(真)(实)(的)(业)(绩)(和)(真)(金)(白)(银)(式)(的)(分)(红)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,A股)(市)(场)(自)(加)(入)(了)(MSCI以)(及)(沪)(港)(通)(、深)(港)(通)(的)(开)(通)(的)(举)(措)(,在)(引)(来)(海)(外)(资)(金)(活)(水)(的)(同)(时)(也)(带)(来)(了)(成)(熟)(市)(场)(的)(先)(进)(投)(资)(理)(念)(。A股)(的)(“港)(股)(化)(”与)(“美)(股)(化)(”趋)(向)(,也)(越)(来)(越)(明)(显)(。
“港)(股)(化)(”和)(“美)(股)(化)(”就)(是)(以)(注)(重)(于)(价)(值)(投)(资)(为)(主)(线)(,一)(边)(是)(好)(的)(股)(票)(倍)(受)(投)(资)(者)(青)(睐)(,甚)(至)(可)(以)(适)(度)(透)(支)(其)(未)(来)(成)(长)(性)(。而)(另)(一)(边)(是)(绩)(差)(股)(被)(市)(场)(所)(唾)(弃)(,股)(价)(不)(断)(下)(滑)(,每)(天)(交)(易)(量)(稀)(少)(,处)(于)(不)(死)(不)(活)(的)(状)(态)(中)(,最)(终)(沦)(为)(“仙)(股)(”(就)(是)(股)(价)(长)(期)(保)(持)(在)(1元)(以)(内)()。
几)(乎)(一)(夜)(间)(,A股)(从)(逼)(空)(式)(暴)(涨)(转)(为)(狂)(跌)(。这)(主)(要)(是)(A股)(受)(到)(外)(围)(股)(市)(下)(跌)(的)(拖)(累)(。同)(时)(,A股)(本)(身)(之)(前)(就)(积)(蓄)(了)(大)(量)(的)(下)(跌)(动)(能)(,此)(时)(正)(好)(得)(以)(渲)(泻)(出)(来)(。更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,A股)(已)(经)(步)(入)(去)(杠)(杆)(时)(代)(,外)(围)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(入)(市)(渠)(道)(被)(封)(堵)(。而)(作)(为)(市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(,要)(想)(在)(这)(种)(环)(境)(下)(取)(得)(回)(报)(,那)(就)(必)(须)(走)(价)(值)(投)(资)(路)(线)(,未)(来)(随)(着)(A股)(市)(场)(逐)(渐)(成)(熟)(,具)(有)(业)(绩)(支)(撑)(,且)(涨)(幅)(不)(大)(的)(个)(股)(才)(是)(最)(好)(避)(风)(港)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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