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高处不胜寒,西藏水资源的冬天已至

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月24日 11:05:31
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(市)(场)(给)(予)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(估)(值)(像)(其)(股)(价)(一)(样)(偏)(低)(,目)(前)(为)(13.62倍)(,远)(低)(于)(23.8倍)(的)(食)(物)(饮)(品)(行)(业)(中)(值)(。就)(如)(同)(沽)(空)(机)(构)(Iceberg在)(2017年)(发)(表)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(指)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(涉)(及)(财)(务)(造)(假)(,其)(股)(票)(不)(值)(得)(投)(资)(且)(将)(会)(崩)(盘)(一)(样)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(犹)(如)(被)(所)(有)(人)(鄙)(弃)(的)(孤)(儿)(,没)(有)(多)(大)(的)(价)(值)(可)(言)(。
我)(们)(暂)(且)(不)(讨)(论)(沽)(空)(报)(告)(的)(真)(实)(性)(,我)(们)(从)(公)(司)(财)(务)(以)(及)(行)(业)(角)(度)(去)(分)(析)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(股)(价)(为)(何)(遭)(遇)(重)(挫)(。
竞)(争)(力)(大)(幅)(减)(弱)(
作)(为)(扎)(根)(于)(西)(藏)(的)(企)(业)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(利)(用)(当)(地)(的)(水)(资)(源)(较)(为)(丰)(富)(的)(特)(点)(,发)(展)(优)(势)(特)(色)(产)(业)(,目)(前)(公)(司)(有)(两)(大)(产)(品)(,一)(是)(制)(造)(及)(销)(售)(包)(括)(了)(“5100西)(藏)(冰)(川)(矿)(泉)(水)(”(5100冰)(川)(水)()和)(中)(低)(端)(产)(品)(“格)(桑)(泉)(”与)(“卓)(玛)(泉)(”在)(内)(的)(瓶)(装)(矿)(泉)(水)(产)(品)(,该)(分)(部)(产)(品)(以)(西)(藏)(为)(大)(本)(营)(,在)(西)(藏)(以)(外)(的)(其)(他)(外)(省)(市)(场)(均)(有)(涉)(及)(;二)(是)(制)(造)(及)(销)(售)(啤)(酒)(产)(品)(,拥)(有)(高)(端)(啤)(酒)(”西)(藏)(高)(原)(青)(稞)(啤)(酒)(”和)(合)(作)(产)(品)(”拉)(萨)(啤)(酒)(”两)(个)(品)(牌)(,是)(藏)(人)(最)(喜)(爱)(的)(啤)(酒)(之)(一)(,在)(拉)(萨)(街)(边)(的)(商)(店)(可)(随)(处)(看)(到)(。此)(外)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(业)(务)(还)(包)(括)(瓶)(坯)(及)(瓶)(盖)(、租)(赁)(瓶)(装)(水)(生)(产)(线)(以)(及)(提)(供)(借)(款)(服)(务)(。
一)(直)(以)(来)(,西)(藏)(5100冰)(川)(水)(一)(直)(是)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(核)(心)(产)(品)(。公)(司)(的)(崛)(起)(依)(赖)(于)(强)(大)(分)(销)(能)(力)(的)(铁)(路)(渠)(道)(,在)(2007年)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(与)(中)(铁)(快)(运)(建)(立)(合)(作)(关)(系)(,售)(予)(中)(铁)(快)(运)(瓶)(装)(矿)(泉)(水)(。有)(了)(巨)(单)(的)(客)(户)(,公)(司)(营)(收)(从)(2008年)(的)(1.2亿)(元)((人)(民)(币)(,下)(同)()飙)(升)(至)(2013年)(的)(7.87亿)(元)(,净)(利)(润)(有)(人)(由)(1120万)(元)(大)(增)(至)(4.4亿)(元)(。巅)(峰)(时)(期)(,西)(藏)(5100冰)(川)(水)(的)(中)(国)(市)(场)(占)(有)(率)(达)(到)(了)(28.5%,雄)(踞)(国)(内)(市)(场)(首)(位)(。
不)(过)(辉)(煌)(并)(不)(能)(永)(恒)(,如)(今)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(已)(今)(不)(如)(昔)(。根)(据)(其)(2018年)(中)(期)(报)(,公)(司)(于)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(的)(收)(入)(为)(4.47亿)(元)(,同)(比)(减)(少)(2%,其)(中)(5100冰)(川)(水)(产)(品)(收)(入)(同)(比)(增)(长)(3%,格)(桑)(泉)(收)(入)(同)(比)(减)(少)(28%,啤)(酒)(收)(入)(则)(下)(降)(4%。期)(内)(总)(销)(量)(5.92万)(吨)(,亦)(有)(下)(滑)(,同)(比)(下)(滑)(了)(4%。
西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(水)(产)(品)(和)(啤)(酒)(产)(品)(销)(量)(都)(有)(所)(下)(滑)(,是)(由)(于)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(激)(烈)(导)(致)(的)(。2017年)(3月)(尼)(尔)(森)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,瓶)(装)(水)(六)(巨)(头)(排)(位)(依)(次)(为)(农)(夫)(山)(泉)(、华)(润)(怡)(宝)(、康)(师)(傅)(、百)(岁)(山)(、娃)(哈)(哈)(、冰)(露)(,六)(巨)(头)(里)(已)(找)(不)(到)(西)(藏)(5100的)(名)(字)(。显)(然)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(在)(竞)(争)(力)(上)(失)(去)(了)(往)(日)(雄)(风)(。随)(着)(国)(内)(外)(众)(多)(矿)(泉)(水)(产)(品)(的)(参)(透)(,以)(及)(啤)(酒)(市)(场)(的)(饱)(和)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(市)(场)(份)(额)(被)(严)(重)(挤)(压)(。
但)(值)(得)(我)(们)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,农)(夫)(山)(泉)(、华)(润)(怡)(宝)(等)(瓶)(装)(水)(巨)(头)(主)(打)(的)(都)(是)(中)(低)(端)(的)(产)(品)(。最)(近)(两)(年)(,升)(级)(与)(回)(归)(成)(为)(矿)(泉)(水)(行)(业)(的)(两)(大)(关)(键)(词)(,矿)(泉)(水)(消)(费)(回)(归)(高)(性)(价)(比)(时)(代)(。西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(把)(握)(住)(了)(关)(键)(节)(点)(,在)(两)(年)(前)(切)(入)(了)(中)(高)(端)(产)(品)(,在)(购)(物)(网)(站)(上)(看)(到)(,5100西)(藏)(冰)(川)(矿)(泉)(水)(售)(价)(较)(高)(,平)(均)(每)(瓶)(售)(价)(约)(在)(4-7元)(之)(间)(。
数)(据)(显)(示)(,目)(前)(高)(端)(水)(占)(饮)(用)(水)(市)(场)(份)(额)(为)(10%,在)(此)(品)(类)(中)(依)(云)(占)(25%、西)(藏)(5100占)(据)(20%、昆)(仑)(山)(占)(10%、百)(岁)(山)(占)(10%的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(。可)(见)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(在)(中)(低)(端)(水)(市)(场)(落)(后)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,在)(高)(端)(水)(方)(面)(扳)(回)(了)(一)(局)(。
成)(本)(控)(制)(难)(,毛)(利)(率)(下)(滑)(明)(显)(
成)(本)(端)(控)(制)(是)(一)(个)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(的)(重)(要)(因)(素)(,而)(毛)(利)(率)(就)(是)(成)(本)(端)(控)(制)(的)(主)(要)(指)(标)(之)(一)(。通)(过)(下)(图)(我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(整)(体)(毛)(利)(率)(逐)(年)(下)(降)(,目)(前)(已)(降)(至)(56.66%,表)(明)(公)(司)(的)(成)(本)(端)(控)(制)(不)(但)(没)(有)(好)(转)(,反)(而)(有)(恶)(化)(的)(趋)(势)(。整)(体)(毛)(利)(率)(下)(降)(主)(要)(是)(受)(其)(水)(业)(务)(的)(毛)(利)(率)(拖)(累)(,水)(业)(务)(毛)(利)(率)(下)(降)(幅)(度)(更)(大)(,2013年)(至)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(已)(下)(降)(了)(近)(20个)(百)(分)(点)(。
西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(经)(营)(成)(本)(主)(要)(是)(原)(材)(料)(及)(耗)(材)(、雇)(员)(福)(利)(费)(以)(及)(运)(输)(成)(本)(。公)(司)(于)(生)(产)(中)(使)(用)(的)(原)(材)(料)(及)(消)(耗)(品)(主)(要)(包)(括)(生)(产)(水)(瓶)(用)(的)(PET颗)(粒)(、PET瓶)(坯)(以)(及)(包)(装)(材)(料)(,原)(材)(料)(成)(本)(一)(直)(占)(了)(公)(司)(销)(售)(成)(本)(的)(60%以)(上)(。2008年)(公)(司)(原)(材)(料)(及)(耗)(材)(成)(本)(为)(4820万)(元)(,而)(2017年)(却)(达)(到)(了)(2.7亿)(元)(。原)(材)(料)(中)(的)(PET塑)(料)(价)(格)(近)(期)(止)(不)(住)(跌)(势)(,目)(前)(橡)(塑)(行)(业)(整)(体)(上)(行)(为)(主)(,PET产)(品)(走)(势)(顺)(应)(大)(行)(情)(。受)(下)(游)(需)(求)(回)(暖)(以)(及)(库)(存)(紧)(张)(等)(因)(素)(影)(响)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(原)(材)(料)(成)(本)(将)(会)(继)(续)(提)(高)(,影)(响)(其)(销)(售)(成)(本)(。
运)(输)(成)(本)(上)(,由)(于)(矿)(泉)(水)(水)(源)(处)(于)(偏)(远)(的)(地)(区)(,故)(公)(司)(运)(输)(成)(本)(相)(较)(同)(行)(企)(业)(高)(昂)(。公)(司)(要)(动)(用)(大)(量)(的)(运)(输)(物)(力)(到)(偏)(远)(的)(冰)(川)(雪)(山)(出)(取)(水)(,而)(矿)(泉)(水)(尤)(其)(是)(高)(端)(矿)(泉)(水)(的)(主)(要)(消)(费)(者)(处)(于)(中)(国)(南)(部)(及)(东)(部)(,这)(就)(对)(公)(司)(的)(运)(输)(成)(本)(造)(成)(了)(巨)(大)(的)(消)(耗)(。随)(着)(公)(司)(不)(断)(加)(码)(高)(端)(矿)(泉)(水)(业)(务)(,预)(计)(运)(输)(成)(本)(将)(会)(只)(增)(不)(减)(。
综)(上)(来)(看)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(毛)(利)(率)(在)(未)(来)(几)(年)(内)(仍)(将)(会)(继)(续)(下)(行)(,进)(而)(影)(响)(公)(司)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(。
另)(外)(,影)(响)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(毛)(利)(率)(的)(一)(大)(因)(素)(是)(客)(户)(结)(构)(的)(变)(化)(。2006年)(-2011年)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(与)(中)(国)(铁)(路)(总)(公)(司)(直)(属)(企)(业)(中)(铁)(快)(运)(签)(下)(订)(单)(,这)(期)(间)(内)(公)(司)(9成)(销)(量)(和)(8成)(收)(入)(都)(是)(来)(自)(于)(铁)(路)(运)(输)(渠)(道)(。然)(而)(2011年)(后)(,中)(铁)(快)(运)(逐)(渐)(减)(少)(了)(采)(购)(量)(。之)(后)(,中)(铁)(快)(运)(停)(止)(向)(公)(司)(采)(购)(,使)(公)(司)(迫)(不)(得)(已)(寻)(求)(新)(的)(销)(售)(渠)(道)(与)(客)(户)(。加)(油)(站)(、航)(空)(公)(司)(等)(成)(为)(公)(司)(正)(在)(发)(展)(中)(的)(销)(售)(渠)(道)(,因)(此)(也)(影)(响)(着)(公)(司)(产)(品)(销)(售)(。
走)(中)(端)(品)(牌)(路)(线)(前)(景)(如)(何)(?
最)(高)(峰)(的)(一)(年)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(近)(90%的)(瓶)(装)(水)(都)(卖)(给)(了)(中)(铁)(快)(运)(。如)(今)(痛)(失)(中)(铁)(大)(单)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(不)(得)(不)(面)(对)(的)(问)(题)(就)(是)(:走)(多)(元)(化)(路)(线)(,开)(发)(中)(高)(端)(品)(牌)(,以)(差)(异)(化)(方)(式)(在)(竞)(争)(激)(烈)(的)(市)(场)(中)(寻)(求)(新)(的)(销)(售)(渠)(道)(与)(客)(户)(。
当)(前)(,影)(院)(、航)(空)(公)(司)(、加)(油)(站)(等)(很)(多)(网)(点)(均)(有)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(5100冰)(川)(水)(的)(影)(子)(。截)(至)(2018年)(6月)(30日)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(水)(产)(品)(的)(零)(售)(渠)(道)(地)(域)(范)(围)(覆)(盖)(超)(过)(100个)(城)(市)(,覆)(盖)(在)(线)(下)(零)(售)(渠)(道)(的)(零)(售)(销)(售)(网)(点)(超)(过)(1.5万)(个)(。从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(看)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(在)(渠)(道)(方)(面)(做)(得)(不)(错)(。
不)(过)(,影)(院)(、航)(空)(公)(司)(、加)(油)(站)(等)(为)(5100冰)(川)(水)(带)(一)(定)(程)(度)(的)(渠)(道)(扩)(容)(,但)(在)(销)(售)(业)(绩)(方)(面)(的)(贡)(献)(仍)(相)(对)(有)(限)(。公)(司)(遭)(中)(铁)(快)(运)(减)(少)(采)(购)(量)(的)(2011年)(起)(,到)(推)(出)(中)(价)(瓶)(装)(水)(格)(桑)(泉)(的)(2016年)(,公)(司)(水)(分)(部)(销)(售)(收)(入)(不)(增)(反)(降)(,由)(6.33亿)(元)(降)(至)(4.8亿)(元)(,并)(未)(能)(给)(公)(司)(整)(体)(业)(绩)(带)(来)(飞)(跃)(。
有)(调)(研)(机)(构)(对)(中)(国)(瓶)(装)(水)(企)(业)(做)(了)(划)(分)(,在)(500ml、PET的)(瓶)(装)(水)(中)(,线)(下)(终)(端)(售)(价)(5元)(以)(上)(,以)(5100冰)(川)(水)(、昆)(仑)(山)(为)(代)(表)(;3-5元)(区)(间)(,以)(百)(岁)(山)(为)(代)(表)(;而)(1-3元)(区)(间)(,则)(有)(怡)(宝)(、娃)(哈)(哈)(、农)(夫)(山)(泉)(和)(康)(师)(傅)(等)(多)(个)(品)(牌)(。
有)(意)(思)(的)(是)(,市)(场)(调)(研)(公)(司)(尼)(尔)(森)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,2018年)(6月)(,中)(国)(瓶)(装)(水)(市)(场)(格)(局)(中)(,农)(夫)(山)(泉)(以)(26.4%市)(场)(份)(额)(稳)(居)(第)(一)(,华)(润)(怡)(宝)(以)(20.9%位)(居)(第)(二)(,而)(百)(岁)(山)(过)(去)(的)(三)(年)(中)(的)(排)(名)(实)(现)(三)(级)(跳)(,以)(9.6%位)(列)(第)(三)(位)(,首)(次)(跻)(身)(行)(业)(前)(三)(。由)(此)(可)(看)(出)(,主)(打)(3-5元)(中)(端)(水)(市)(场)(的)(百)(岁)(山)(更)(受)(当)(前)(消)(费)(者)(的)(青)(睐)(,市)(场)(前)(景)(更)(广)(阔)(,毕)(竟)(产)(品)(热)(度)(的)(评)(分)(不)(是)(由)(厂)(家)(决)(定)(的)(,而)(是)(千)(千)(万)(万)(消)(费)(者)(的)(消)(费)(趋)(势)(来)(决)(定)(的)(。
西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(目)(前)(在)(中)(高)(端)(水)(领)(域)(的)(主)(打)(产)(品)(格)(桑)(泉)(以)(及)(卓)(玛)(泉)(,在)(价)(格)(以)(及)(产)(品)(属)(性)(上)(与)(百)(岁)(山)(定)(位)(类)(似)(。在)(京)(东)(平)(台)(上)(看)(到)(,500ml*24瓶)(的)(格)(桑)(泉)(矿)(泉)(水)(售)(价)(为)(96元)(,平)(均)(每)(瓶)(4元)(,属)(典)(型)(的)(中)(端)(价)(格)(矿)(泉)(水)(。物)(美)(价)(廉)(、性)(价)(比)(高)(等)(好)(评)(比)(比)(皆)(是)(。
走)(上)(瓶)(装)(水)(市)(场)(的)(发)(展)(趋)(势)(的)(“风)(火)(轮)(”了)(,那)(西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(格)(桑)(泉)(及)(卓)(玛)(泉)(表)(现)(如)(何)(呢)(?以)(格)(桑)(泉)(为)(例)(,在)(2017年)(加)(大)(国)(际)(化)(战)(略)(和)(深)(化)(渠)(道)(战)(略)(合)(作)(,并)(通)(过)(一)(系)(列)(的)(市)(场)(活)(动)(继)(续)(品)(牌)(推)(广)(后)(,格)(桑)(泉)(产)(品)(的)(收)(入)(同)(比)(相)(比)(增)(长)(了)(47%,销)(量)(同)(比)(增)(长)(56%。但)(到)(了)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(,格)(桑)(泉)(的)(销)(量)(却)(同)(比)(下)(滑)(了)(23%,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(解)(释)(是)(由)(于)(细)(分)(市)(场)(产)(品)(品)(牌)(竞)(争)(激)(烈)(的)(影)(响)(。
在)(消)(费)(升)(级)(的)(大)(势)(之)(下)(,1元)(低)(价)(水)(已)(经)(落)(幕)(,竞)(争)(格)(局)(日)(渐)(明)(晰)(,第)(二)(个)(黄)(金)(时)(代)(已)(经)(到)(来)(,中)(国)(中)(高)(端)(水)(江)(湖)(的)(新)(一)(轮)(厮)(杀)(,竞)(争)(呈)(现)(白)(热)(化)(。怡)(宝)(、农)(夫)(山)(泉)(、统)(一)(、加)(多)(宝)(等)(老)(牌)(水)(企)(正)(相)(继)(推)(出)(中)(高)(端)(水)(产)(品)(,西)(藏)(水)(资)(源)(的)(中)(高)(端)(水)(市)(场)(份)(额)(将)(继)(续)(受)(到)(挤)(压)(。要)(做)(好)(中)(高)(端)(水)(市)(场)(,关)(键)(还)(在)(于)(两)(点)(:一)(是)(与)(产)(品)(“健)(康)(性)(”相)(关)(的)(优)(质)(、稀)(缺)(的)(水)(源)(,二)(是)(赋)(予)(产)(品)(更)(多)(的)(文)(化)(内)(涵)(和)(个)(性)(特)(征)(,增)(加)(产)(品)(的)(附)(加)(值)(。
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